Exact calculation
Hypergeometric law applied in real time
Plus besoin de faire le calcul de tête avant de jouer la carte — le risque exact de perdre une pièce clé s'affiche instantanément.
Free tool
Pot of Desires Calculator
Calculate the odds that you'll have at least 1 un-banished copy of a card in your Main Deck left, before you play Pot of Desires.
Cards in your Main Deck
Copies of the card you're worried about
Banish the top 10 cards
draws 2 cardsChance of keeping at least 1 copy
98.8%
Expected copies banished : 0.75
Exact outcome breakdown
0 copy banished
41.1%
1 copy banished
44%
2 copies banished
13.7%
3 copies banished
1.2%
Why use this tool?
10 fixed cards
Matched to the card's exact banish count
Pot of Desires always banishes exactly 10 cards from the top of the Deck — the tool applies that fixed number directly.
Full breakdown
Exact distribution of possible outcomes
Beyond the overall risk, the tool breaks down the probability of banishing exactly 0, 1, 2 or 3 copies.
What is Pot of Desires in Yu-Gi-Oh!?
Pot of Desires is a Normal Spell Card that banishes face-down the top 10 cards of your Deck, then has you draw 2 cards. You can only activate 1 copy of "Pot of Desires" per turn.
Unlike Pot of Extravagance, the number of cards banished is always fixed (10) and comes from the Main Deck, not the Extra Deck. The price is the same principle: the banished cards are lost for the rest of the duel while they remain banished, including a key piece of your strategy you were counting on drawing later.
The more your Yu-Gi-Oh! Main Deck contains copies of the same card, the higher your chances of keeping at least 1 after Pot of Desires — conversely, the smaller or more concentrated your Deck, the higher the risk of losing them all. This is exactly what this calculator lets you anticipate before playing the card in a duel.
The mathematical formula
Letting N the number of cards in your Main Deck, K the number of copies of the card you want to keep, and n = 10 the fixed number of cards banished, this is a draw without replacement described by the hypergeometric law. The probability that all K copies get banished is:
P(tous bannis) = C(N−K, 10−K) / C(N, 10)
The probability that at least 1 remains is therefore simply 1 − P(tous bannis). The calculator applies this formula directly, along with the full distribution for k = 0 to K copies banished.
How to use the calculator
- 1. Main Deck size : Enter the number of cards currently in your Main Deck (40 to 60).
- 2. Copies to protect : Enter how many copies of the card you're worried about are in that Main Deck (0 to 3).
- 3. Result : The tool shows the probability that you'll have at least 1 un-banished copy left, the expected number of copies banished, and the exact distribution of outcomes.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions about Pot of Desires
It's a Normal Spell Card that banishes the top 10 cards of your Deck face-down, then has you draw 2 cards. You can only activate 1 copy of "Pot of Desires" per turn.
Banishing the top 10 cards is, probability-wise, equivalent to a random draw without replacement from a shuffled Deck — described by the hypergeometric law. The probability depends on the number of cards in the Main Deck and the number of copies of the card you want to keep. The more copies you have, the higher the probability of keeping at least 1. This calculator applies that formula directly.
The smaller your Main Deck, the higher the proportion of cards banished by Pot of Desires, and so the higher the risk of losing every copy of a card. A tight 40-card Main Deck maximizes your chances of drawing your key cards, but also raises the risk if you play Pot of Desires — this calculator lets you visualize that trade-off.
Yes, for the rest of the duel: a banished card can no longer be drawn or played from the Deck while it remains banished. That's why it's important to weigh the risk before activating the card, especially if your Main Deck only has a single copy of an essential piece.
Other available tools
Build a Deck that holds up against Pot of Desires
Free, no sign-up — open the deckbuilder and adjust your copy counts accordingly.